Singapore Time: Sunday, January 11, 2026, 20:33

The U.S. equity market is currently closed for the weekend. However, trading will resume tomorrow evening (Monday), marking the second half of the “January Effect.” Based on the SPX500 Triangle Analysis Framework, I have conducted a deep analysis using post–Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) price action and the early signals ahead of the upcoming earnings season.

Executive Summary

Current Price Action The S&P 500 Index (SPX) closed near 6,945 on Friday. Following the sharp volatility triggered by the NFP release, the index managed to recover most of its intraday losses, signaling strong dip-buying demand.

Core Conclusion The bullish structure remains intact. The market successfully passed its “NFP stress test” above the 6,900 level. With price now just a step away from 7,000, upside momentum remains constructive.

Trend Outlook Neutral Bullish. As macro data fades into the background, market focus is shifting toward earnings expectations ahead of the upcoming reporting season. Early next week is likely to see high-level consolidation and accumulation.

Triangle Analysis Breakdown Pillar 1: Macro Environment — Earnings Season Prelude & Inflation Pricing

Policy Backdrop The NFP data reaffirmed the resilience of the U.S. labor market. Current market pricing suggests that the Federal Reserve faces no immediate pressure to hike, nor a compelling case for aggressive rate cuts in the near term. This creates a moderately supportive environment for risk assets.

Key Focus for Next Week Attention will increasingly shift toward the large U.S. bank earnings scheduled for Friday (JPM, C, WFC). Their guidance will be critical in determining whether a breakout above 7,000 is backed by fundamental capital flows rather than short-term momentum.

Pillar 2: Technical Structure — Rising Lows at Elevated Levels

Price Action On Friday, SPX briefly dipped to 6,892 before rebounding sharply, forming a bullish hammer candlestick on the daily chart with a long lower wick. This price behavior highlights substantial buying interest around 6,900.

Trend Indicators Price remains above the 10-day simple moving average (SMA 10). As long as 6,900 holds, the ascending channel structure remains valid.

Pillar 3: Microstructure — Volatility Compression & Gamma Dynamics

VIX (Volatility Index) VIX remains subdued near 13.5, indicating that institutional participants did not engage in aggressive hedging despite the NFP volatility. Risk aversion remains exceptionally low.

Gamma Wall Analysis The largest Call Wall is positioned at 7,000. This suggests that, absent a strong catalyst, price action near this level may encounter automatic dealer hedging pressure, creating short-term resistance.

Key Support and Resistance Levels Level Type Price Significance Major Resistance (R2) 7,025 First profit-taking zone after a confirmed break above 7,000 Resistance (R1) 6,972 Friday’s intraday high; immediate upside target Pivot (P) 6,938 Monday’s opening strength threshold; above this favors bulls Key Support (S1) 6,895 Psychological 6,900 level and NFP washout low Major Support (S2) 6,840 50-day moving average; a break would invalidate the January Effect
Tactical Trading Strategy

Positioning Strategy Maintain core long exposure. The NFP event has effectively cleared short-term risk. There is no strategic rationale to exit positions just ahead of the 7,000 psychological threshold.

Stop-Loss Strategy Raise overall stop-loss levels to 6,890. This level strikes an optimal balance between profit protection and allowing sufficient room for market noise.

Add-on Strategy If the market opens tomorrow and holds above 6,950, a measured incremental add-on may be considered to position for a test of 7,000.

Risk Warning Remain alert to false breakouts during the pre-earnings phase. A decisive move above 7,000 accompanied by a sudden spike in VIX would be a signal to reduce exposure immediately.