### Market Update – January 22, 2026 (SGT) | Market Insights

Market Update – January 22, 2026 (SGT)

1. Executive Summary

Current Status (Corrected):
S&P 500 futures (ES) are trading around 6,955, with the cash open projected near 6,940.
Contrary to the previous consolidation thesis, the market is in a recovery rally following a sharp drop on Tuesday (-2%) and a strong rebound on Wednesday (+1.16%).

Core Logic:
The primary catalyst is the Trump administration's suspension of tariff threats against Europe (linked to a Greenland framework deal). This has significantly reduced geopolitical risk premiums.
Additionally, AMD is surging +7% pre-market, leading a semiconductor-driven rally.

Trend Outlook:
News-Driven Recovery. Bulls are attempting to reclaim the narrative and push back toward 7,000, though caution is warranted ahead of Friday's PCE data.

2. Triangular Analysis

Macro:

Tariff Relief — The walk-back of European tariffs is the engine behind today's positive sentiment, benefiting multinationals with high EU exposure.
Data Deck — While GDP growth estimates are due, the market is currently dominated by the relief in geopolitical tensions.

Technical:

V-Shape Recovery — The index is repairing the damage from Tuesday's sell-off. Futures (6,955) have cleared Wednesday's close, targeting the gap left by the previous decline.
Momentum — Price has reclaimed the 10-day SMA. RSI is pivoting upward to ~60, signaling a shift in short-term momentum from bearish to bullish.

Micro:

Sector Lead — AMD's pre-market surge (+8%) is lifting the entire semiconductor complex (SMH/SOXX), providing strong beta for the Nasdaq and SPX.
Volatility — Expect a VIX crush tonight as the immediate tariff fear subsides, favoring option sellers.

3. Key Support and Resistance Levels

| Level | Price | Description | |-------------|----------|------------------------------------------| | R2 | 7,036 | Futures 52-week high; origin of Tuesday's drop | | R1 | 6,986 | Cash All-Time High; immediate target | | Pivot (P) | 6,920 | Futures Open; Bullish defense line | | S1 | 6,875 | Wednesday Cash Close | | S2 | 6,830 | Tuesday's Panic Low |

4. Actionable Advice

Intraday Strategy: Buy the News
Given the tangible relief on tariffs, a pullback to 6,930 – 6,940 offers a high-probability long entry.

Focus:
Target Semiconductors (NVDA, AMD) as they are leading the charge.

Risk Management:
If the index fails to hold 6,950 by the close, beware of a "Dead Cat Bounce."
Hard stop at 6,910.

📊 Key Data Summary

| Date (SGT) | Trend | Support / Resistance | Core Strategy | |--------------|--------------------|----------------------|--------------------------------------------| | 2026-01-22 | Tariff Relief Rally| 6,920 / 6,986 | Long on tariff news/AMD strength. Stop 6,910. Target 6,986. |