Singapore Time: Saturday, January 10, 2026, 20:33

U.S. equities have just concluded an exceptionally volatile Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) week. Last night, the first NFP report of 2026 was released, revealing a delicate balance—job creation came in slightly above expectations while wage growth moderated. This mix triggered sharp intraday swings, but ultimately allowed the S&P 500 Index (SPX) to settle near 6,945.

Using the SPX500 Triangle Analysis Framework, I present a weekly close review and a forward-looking outlook for the coming week.

Executive Summary

Current Price Action Under the NFP shock, SPX completed a successful pullback test of the 6,900 support level, followed by a strong rebound that returned the index to elevated closing levels.

Core Conclusion The January Effect remains firmly intact. Although the 7,000 psychological threshold is now within immediate reach, last night’s shakeout effectively absorbed a significant amount of short-term profit-taking, further reinforcing the bullish structure.

Trend Assessment Bullish. Next week, the market is expected to launch a full-scale assault on the 7,000 level.

Triangle Analysis Breakdown Pillar 1: Macro Environment — The Goldilocks Narrative Continues

Data Interpretation The latest NFP report confirmed labor-market resilience without reigniting inflation fears. This “not too hot, not too cold” outcome remains the most favorable macro backdrop for equities.

Expectations Management Markets are currently pricing in a benign CPI print next week, placing the macro environment squarely within a constructive risk-asset window.

Pillar 2: Technical Structure — Moving-Average Crossover and Critical Retest

Price Behavior SPX briefly dipped to 6,892 last night before rebounding sharply, forming a hammer candlestick with a long lower shadow, a classic signal of aggressive dip-buying.

Support Confirmation The 10-day simple moving average (SMA 10) has now crossed above the 20-day SMA, forming a textbook short-term golden cross—often a precursor to trend acceleration.

Pillar 3: Microstructure — Gamma Release and Squeeze Setup

Gamma Dynamics The pullback to 6,900 triggered dealer hedging flows, pushing price back into positive gamma territory.

Short-Covering Risk A final cluster of short positions remains concentrated in the 6,960–6,980 zone. A decisive break above this range next week would likely spark a large-scale short squeeze, propelling price through 7,000.

Key Support and Resistance Levels Level Type Price Significance Major Resistance (R2) 7,025 Acceleration target after a confirmed break above 7,000 Resistance (R1) 6,972 Last night’s spike high; the final defensive barrier Pivot 6,938 Opening threshold next week; above this sustains bullish bias Key Support (S1) 6,895 Strong demand zone near 6,900, validated by NFP action Major Support (S2) 6,840 50-day moving average; a break signals trend reversal
Tactical Trading Strategy

Position Management Maintain moderately high exposure (60–70%). The NFP-driven pullback has effectively released near-term risk, favoring patient positioning for further upside.

Stop-Loss Strategy Raise overall stop-loss levels to 6,890. As long as this level holds, the primary objective remains 7,000.

Add-On Strategy If Monday’s open holds above 6,950, consider a final, measured add-on position to position for a breakout through 7,000.

Risk Management Warning Remain vigilant for a false breakout at 7,000. A rapid rejection back below 6,980 following an initial breakout should trigger immediate profit-taking and exposure reduction.